Too Many Probabilities: Statistical Evidence of Tort Causation
Barnes, David W.
Abstract
Medical scientific testimony is often expressed in terms of two different probabilities: 1. The increased probability of harm if a person is exposed, for example, to a toxin. 2. The observed relationship is an artifact of the experimental method.
This article demonstrates that neither probability, taken alone or together, measures whether the "preponderance of the evidence" test is met.