The Consequences of Repealing Health Care Reform in Early 2013

This Article evaluates the consequences of an early 2013 repeal of the enacted Health Care Reform. We consider the Act's significant provisions that will have taken effect by 2013. For implemented provisions, we review their current effect on coverage, costs, and care. We then evaluate the practical consequence of the loss of those provisions.

For provisions that have not yet taken effect, but will before 2013, we evaluate their projected effects in considering the consequences of repeal. Finally, for provisions that will not take effect before 2014, but where significant funds and effort will be expended prior to 2014, we evaluate those costs in considering the consequences of repeal. We conclude that the loss of many provisions would cause a significant impact. However, not all segments of the population would be equally affected by a pre-2014 repeal.

Americans with basic coverage stand to lose the most. For example, changes such as the extension of dependent coverage and restrictions on annual limits have greatly increased the value of basic coverage for those who have it. Medicare recipients would similarly stand to lose from a 2013 repeal. But for those unable to afford basic comprehensive coverage, a 2013 repeal would comparatively have less effect-though a repeal after 2014 would significantly impact this group.