Space and Existential Risk: The Need for Global Coordination and Caution in Space Development

This Article examines urgent risks resulting from outer space activities under the current space law regime. Emerging literature alarmingly predicts that the risk of a catastrophe that ends the human species this century is approximately 10–25%. Continued space development may increase, rather than decrease, overall existential risk due in part to crucial and identifiable market failures. Addressing these shortcomings should take priority over the competing commercial, scientific, and geopolitical interests that currently dominate in space policy.

Sensible changes, including shifting space into a closed-access commons as envisioned by the 1979 Moon Treaty, may help in achieving existential security.